September 29, 2014 Leave a comment
IF – I am not a conspiracy theorist mind you. So, what IF the world devolves – you may pick your reason. The bullion markets fail to deliver. The banking sector is exposed and crashes along with the inevitable banking “holidays.” The inter-net crashes. Pandemic hits world wide. The oil flow is disrupted. It doesn’t really matter the reason for this trans-continental devolution. The only country that survives the resultant crash and pandemonia is Russia.
Any of the above will cease all economic life as we know it but, Russia will survive.
Given any of the above reasons for systemic inter-connected global dis-function and devolution, life as we have known it will abruptly change. Cities will blow apart with the necessary individual search for survival. Money as we know it will have no value. Food, clean water, warmth and security will consume every waking moment of everyone’s life in a city that no longer has regularly occurring food shipments. Infrastructure of water, fuel, electricity, sewage will grind to a halt quickly. Travel and transportation will cease. This will spark immediate rioting and violence the like that the west has not seen on its territories. Those smart enough to get out of the cities will be met with fierce resistance from those who reside outside of the cities. The rural population will not want their own scare resources shared with the hungry and frightened hoards from the cities. Those escaping the chaos of the cities will be met with the very violence they were seeking to escape.
But, Russia will be spared all of this.
Wait a minute you say. “What about China?” “Won’t China survive?” Anyone with an ear to the flow of news and history knows that China is a powder keg. Export driven economies are dependent on the flow of trade and currency. Without this, China begins to see civil strife. What will the workers do who no longer have the western economies buying their trash and trinkets? Without employment for the masses, laid off civil strife is guaranteed. Already the central planners have been working overtime to keep peasants occupied. We know that China has printed at least 5:1 what the western central banks have printed currency wise. Entire vacant cities have been built to keep “surplus labor” busy and not idle. Idle able bodied people get angry. Central planners have issued mountains of debt to fund these “ghost” cities. This debt has been sold to the city dwellers as secure investments for retirement. This debt has been sold by the very banks who have made these insolvent loans to preferred developers who are now trying desperately to off-shore their windfall to other non-Chinese venues far from the reach of the masses and central planners. This debt is waiting for its Lehman event. Already the agrarian citizens are dumping lorries bound for the coastal mega-cities because there is not enough food left for those who have produced it to survive. The country is cobbled together from various ethnic and language cultures which are only held together by the strong arm of the central committee. If there is global pandemonium and trade ceases, this powder keg will blow. Civil war amongst disenfranchised and defrauded populations and varying cultures will begin slowly and then will increase exponentially with every attempt by the central planners to squelch it. China will be too preoccupied to pay much attention to the remainder of the world.
The entire northern half of the globe plus Australia and New Zealand will be in flames. But, Russia will be spared all of this.
No banking systems will exist. Militaries stranded far from their homeland will be at the mercy of their scant resources and the local resources that will be hoarded by local interests. Militaries within their homelands will evaporate to protect their next of kin. Governments will seek in vain to try to keep their military intact to support the government’s self interest. But, this will be a failing process as more and more military personnel and leadership will resist the urges of the government to squelch the chaos around it. The governments will be exposed for what they are – impotent parasites on a helpless population. Without the military, governments do not exist. Without governments, countries fragment into smaller and smaller tribal/local groups. This tribal structure will exist for several years until the populations have killed enough of each other and died of the subsequent disease. Those left will begin to reorganize into larger units like counties and states. Countries as we know them will be reconfigured into what makes sense for those who have survived.
But, Russia will remain much as it is.
Western countries and many Asian countries will cease to exist all together. What population that is left will be fragmented and fiercely distrustful of outsiders. Building relationships and banning together with other survivors will only be facilitated by a more fierce distrust of the only remaining power in the world – Russia.
Now, I do not think this is some grand scheme created or conceived by Russia. I truly think that one day the above will begin to occur and Russia will find itself with an opportunity that it never dreamed would happen. Too many variables would have had to have been controlled and too many strings would have needed to be pulled for one group of oligarchs to pull this off. Russia is merely the beneficiary of the madness of the western oligarchs.
How did Russia get to this beneficial place in history? Well, mainly by the continued suppression of a population. A population that has for centuries been under one form of Czar or another. Call a dictatorial situation by whatever name you may, but this is what has brought them to this place in time. Its population has been purged and formed to do what it can to survive the harshness of some (Stalin). It has been trained to not hope for too much nor despair too much by others (Putin). It is a geography that is large with a population scattered about it. The population does not, as a whole, travel much. It is accustomed to making do with what it has with little help from the outside world or its own disconnected citizens. In a word, it has long been isolated within and without. This is what will save it. How so?
Suppose the banks collapse for what ever reason – bullion, debt, inter-net breakdown, pandemic. It will make no difference to the Russian people. Sure, some oligarchs will lose billions, but the average Russian will survive. They have relentlessly survived in harsh conditions without banks. They don’t bank the way the west does. They are not a wholly export driven economy as the Chinese are. They don’t bank daily online as many in the west do. Besides, the government can easily print enough to handle the banking needs of the seemingly poor masses.
Suppose a pandemic breaks out. Remember, most Russians do not travel. The first hint of Ebola or the like will be met with intense lock down and quarantine. Remember, the Russian population is scattered across a vast continent and this continent is sparsely populated. A city may find disease at its airport, but the Russian government regularly has cut off travel from a region for numbers of reasons in its history. The population is used to this. No big deal to them, but to the west this would be grand travesty leading to civil disobedience and rioting immediately. Not in Russia.
Disruption in the flow of oil – a non-starter. Russia has enough of its own. Sure, lack of exports would bankrupt some oligarchs, but what is that to the masses? They have not profited from the exports.
Are you beginning to get the picture? The outside world has little to do with the average Russian serf. These serfs are completely dependent on their lords for their daily existence. The lords are mostly dependent on their Czar. Their Czar is relatively independent on the rest of the world. The world can go hell and what is that to a Russian? Perhaps, this will be the only time in the history of the world it will be good to be Russian.
So how will Russia respond? Glad you asked. I too wonder! It could use its military to immediately go in and stake the resources it wants. It could wait for the world to devolve into a more stable state and then go take what it wants with its military. It could become a one world government and force its dis-functional form of government on all as it wishes. It could negotiate trade deals with the survivors, but keep their capitalistic tendencies alive and flourishing to provide for the oligarchs, but away from the homeland. There are many other possibilities. Which will it choose?
Part II to follow.